For patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma, excluding the effects of coexisting conditions can lead to underestimation or overestimation of survival, according to a study published online July 10 in JAMA Otolaryngology-Head & Neck Surgery to coincide with the American Head and Neck Society 11th International Conference on Head and Neck Cancer, held from July 8 to 12 in Montreal.
Louise Davies, M.D., from the VA Outcomes Group in White River Junction, Vermont, and colleagues used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 registry (2000 to 2011), SEER-Medicare linked files, and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS; 1986 to 2009) to develop models to estimate the probability of a patient surviving or dying from cancer or other causes. Data were included for 22,392 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma and 402,626 NHIS interviewees.
The calculator was designed for public use to estimate health status-adjusted age, life expectancy in the absence of cancer, and the probability of survival, death from cancer, or death from other causes within one to 10 years of diagnosis in patients aged 20 to 86 years with newly diagnosed oral cancer. Compared with their matched U.S. population, the models in the calculator estimated that patients with oral cancer have an increased risk for death from other causes; this risk increases by stage.
“In the case of oral cancer, the models and this calculator show that many patients with oral cancer have a greater risk of dying of other causes due to the number and type of coexisting conditions they have,” the authors write.
Louise Davies et al, A New Personalized Oral Cancer Survival Calculator to Estimate Risk of Death From Both Oral Cancer and Other Causes, JAMA Otolaryngology–Head & Neck Surgery (2023). DOI: 10.1001/jamaoto.2023.1975
Leila J. Mady et al, Novel Oral Cancer Survival Calculator—Do We Have a Crystal Ball?, JAMA Otolaryngology–Head & Neck Surgery (2023). DOI: 10.1001/jamaoto.2023.1976
JAMA Otolaryngology–Head & Neck Surgery
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